The MCP-XXI-97 Workshop-School

“ SIMULATION OF DEVELOPING MODELS”

Section 3.

Integral risk and social factor

by Yuriy Sayenko, Kyiv, Ukraine

            It is accustomed, as a rule, to reduce an integral risk to quite a simple formula:

I = S HVR,

where H is the uncertainty of the risk, V is the significance; R is the risk according to each factor.

            But actually, this is non-linear, interrupted model of quite a complex nature. It becomes especially complex when the risk characteristics are added with socio-cultural and socio-psychological factors.

            Take, for example, one of phenomena of the Chornobyl disaster after-effects. It is about 1000 people who reside permanently in 30-kilometer alienation zone. They, from one side, realize clearly the high radioactive danger from the side of the environment, hardest economic and other conditions of the living, absence of medical aid. But, from the other side, the strong attachment of natural and landscape character to “native places” and the socio-cultural attachment to traditions and “graves of ancestors” lead to the fact that they ignore completely all the other maximal values of risks.

            I think, the integral risk is the non-linear and interrupted function, the nature of which is interpreted by the combinatorics and game theory. Probably, this is a specific task of a game of a man with the nature and socio-cultural space.

            The purpose of this paper is to clarify theoretically the setting of the task. This March-April, the sociological study of the people suffered from the Chornobyl disaster on the problems

of integral risk while their making choice of own model of survival will be carried out. At the same, the expert survey of specialists and scientists will be conducted in addition to this.

The MCP-XXI-97 Workshop-School

“ SIMULATION OF DEVELOPING MODELS”

Section 1.

Social systems:

characteristics of development and simulation

by Yuriy Sayenko, Kyiv, Ukraine

            The simulation of social systems is connected, first of all, not with a notion of its development, but with a notion of degree of complication of its state. It is a complexity level

and an uncertainty, an unclear and vague chracter that are the main obstacle for the simulation. Social systems are in one of such states: stability-destructiveness-crisis-catastrophe-collapse.

These states are not always connected with the notion of development, and most of all, with

the notion of the degree of complication of both structure and situation, order and chaos.

            The value and normative basis determines the structure and behaviour of

social systems.

            The change of the state of social system is the change of value and normative basis,

the change of base of space  of survival (model). While the space of survival (model) is being change (nobody does pay attention to this!), there is almost the full change of functional dependences between the elements and factors of the system, and the change of criterial system

of survival. The own specific model of functioning acts in each space of survival. “Search” and “tuning” of this model is carried out, primarily, on the basis of self-organisation.

            An adequate character of vital capacity of new space of survival is determined by the fact

on what phase of development and substantiation this space is now: idea-ideology-myth-model-program-function-formula. The adaptation of the new space (model) of survival is carried out not simply and not evenly, it has the obligatory “splashes” or “explosions” to test whether it is “solid”.

            The change of space of survival (model) is non-linear and interrupted. The determination of survival risks is of the complex nature of their mutual strengthening and weakening each other.

            The author proposes a principal scheme of the process of transition of a social system into the other state.